The Virginia Beach municipal center massshooting: A retrospective threat assessment using the WAVR-21.

December 10, 2025

Cowan, R. G., & Lankford, A. (2024). The Virginia Beach municipal center mass shooting: A retrospective threat assessment using the WAVR-21. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 11(2), 83–105. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000203

This retrospective study applied the WAVR-21 V3 to the 2019 Virginia Beach workplace mass shooting. Acknowledging the issue of hindsight bias, the authors delved into evidence from official reports and previously unreleased documents and photographs. Their findings “suggest that at least 12 risk factors for violence were prominent or present in the Virginia Beach mass shooter’s life, and that he clearly posed a significant threat of violence before his attack.” Previous investigators had stated that “indications of violent tendencies” were not uncovered and that “we may never know why he committed this heinous act.” Case details were provided toward a better understanding of the subject’s trajectory to mass violence, as well as recommendations to improve assessment and management strategies.

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