The Concept of Leakage in Threat Assessment

December 10, 2025

Leakage—communications to a third party indicating an individual’s intent to do harm—has become a central construct in modern threat assessment, yet its conceptual boundaries and operational utility remain unevenly understood. This paper traces the origins of the leakage concept, differentiates it from related warning behaviors, and synthesizes findings from school violence, workplace violence, and extremist casework. We review empirical studies demonstrating leakage as a frequent pre-attack behavior and explore its communicative, psychological, and interpersonal drivers, including unmet needs for recognition, grievance expression, and identity stabilization. Practical implications for law enforcement, mental health professionals, and multidisciplinary threat assessment teams are outlined, emphasizing structured evaluation of content, context, and audience. We conclude by identifying unresolved questions about false positives, digital-era amplification, and developmental variability, proposing future directions for research and operational practice.

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